We're Entering The Final Year Of The Cycle: My 2026 Forecasts
This video presents the presenter's fourth annual market forecast for 2026, building upon the 18-year US real estate and economic cycle theory. The approach is contrarian, especially as the market approaches its peak.
Reflection of last year predictions (2025):
- Real estate (US, UK, Australia) 🏡: Finished higher. Hit.
- US interest rates: Expected to rise in H2 2025 or H1 2026. Did not rise, but also didn't fall as much as expected. Miss/Neutral.
- S&P, NDX, DJI 📈: All closed higher (S&P at 69, NDX at 25.5K, DJI at 48K). Hit.
- Commodities, energies 🔥: Commodities (gold, silver, copper) had huge gains; oil and gas not so much. Mixed.
- Bitcoin (BTC) ₿: Won't trade below 66K (held); hit at least 122K (reached 126K). Hit.
- ETH 🪙: Outperform BTC (almost flat/5% down); ETH/BTC won't break 0.09 (held). Mixed/Hit.
2026 Forecasts:
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Real Estate
- US Real Estate Outlook 🏡: High chance the US national average house price tops in 2025/26 if it hasn't already. No collapse is anticipated in 2026, but significant volatility. The remembered "collapse" (like 2008) typically happens 2 years post-top.
- Australia Real Estate Outlook 🇦🇺: National average gains will begin to slow from current >1% month-over-month growth, especially if the US market slows. No major downturn expected in 2026.
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Stock Markets
- Dow Jones 📈: Anticipated high volatility and a trading range in H1 2026, with cleaner movements and rallies potentially in Q4.
- S&P 500 target 🎯: Around 7,500 points.
- Micro Strategy (MSTR) 📉: Expected to find a low in H2 2026 (July-Oct), potentially hitting new lows below $100-$120 before any new all-time high.
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Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin (BTC) ₿: Will trade under 70K in 2026. If the 50% level (70,800) is broken, it could test under 50K. A relief rally is possible, but a stronger consolidation is needed before a sustained bull market. Watching for a low in Q3/October 2026.
- Altcoins (SOL, XRP, ETH) 🪙: Exchange volume (lifeblood of crypto) is falling, indicating further downside. Price targets for potential lows: SOL ~ $100, XRP ~ $1.80, ETH ~ $2,960. Total 3 (excl. stablecoins) to trade below 400B, possibly 300B. Altcoin dominance to trade below 5%.
- USDT Dominance 💹: Will trade above 7%, and USDT+USDC dominance will trade above 12% (potentially 14%).
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Metals
- Silver (XAG) 🥈: Possible new all-time high before the cycle ends, but 2026 has a high chance of closing red due to historical patterns after big annual moves. Price targets: $90-$110 (conservative) or $130-$150 (liberal). Not expected to hit $200 this cycle.
- Gold (XAU) 🥇: Anticipates a new all-time high in 2026 and expects gold to hold up better than silver. The gold/silver ratio will likely bottom and bounce. Gold is not expected to hit $10,000 per ounce this cycle.
Overall Sentiment: The presenter holds a neutral to cautiously bearish sentiment for 2026, emphasizing the increasing difficulty of forecasting due to balanced sentiment and anticipated volatility as markets approach the peak of the 18-year cycle. Key influencing factors are the lack of clear sentiment divergences (unlike previous bearish years) and the leading indicator of the US real estate market potentially topping.
Final Takeaway: Viewers should brace for significant volatility and potential corrections across various markets in 2026, especially in crypto and silver, while being mindful that market tops precede major collapses by a couple of years.